Single Page Text Only - 09/22/12

November 2012 Propositions
by Barbara Stone, Ph.D., election analyst

This year is the first election under the new primary rules and the first districts created by a commission. In addition, the Democrats in our Legislature changed the law so that ballot propositions now appear only in November. Already, we can see some interesting results.

  • The new system calls for the top two finishers in the June primary to run-off in November. That has resulted in a number of races where the final choice is between two members of the same party. That is forcing candidates to look for votes in the other party, the new swing voters. The idea was to elect more moderate officials; it may actually be working that way in some areas.
  • There is a methodology to working the new system that some folks seem not to have grasped. For example, there is a new congressional seat in San Bernardino that has nearly equal numbers of Democrats and Republicans. Yet the run-off is between two Republicans. The key appears to be that two viable Republicans ran but four Democrats did. Thus a seat that should be a toss-up is sure to be won by a Republican.
  • The redistricting by commission was not “fair” in the sense of being impartial. It was a Latino gerrymander, though not necessarily a Democrat one. In their zeal to create seats that would produce Hispanic or Latino representatives, the commission freed up some districts where Republicans can be competitive. The San Bernardino congressional seat is one of those. There is another that crosses the LA County/Orange County line to give Linda Sanchez a sufficiently ethnic (Latino, not Vietnamese) district. The net result should be some Republican pick-ups, if their political people are any good.
  • In many areas, primary elections have relatively higher Republican than Democrat turnout. That is why the legislature has put all the ballot initiatives in November. That should empower Republicans even more in future primaries, which may play into the methodology for working the new systems that I talked about above.

PROPOSITIONS

PROPOSITION 30 is Governor Brown’s four year sales tax increase of 1/4 cent and seven year income tax increase of 1% to 3% on high income tax payers. Since we already have a 1% surtax on anyone making over $1 million, this would make the top rate in California 13.3%. All the money would go into the state general fund. The measure should be considered in conjunction with Proposition 38; even if they both pass, only the one with the highest vote will take effect. The current state budget is built on the assumption this one will pass.

There are major problems with this measure. It affects the top 1 per cent of filers, who already pay 40% of the state’s Personal Income Tax. These people make most of their money from investments and businesses, not wages and salaries. The fact that the state already depends on them so much is what is leading to the wild swings in state income in bad times. Furthermore, these people can and do move out of state; Tiger Wood doesn’t live here anymore. It is short sighted, stupid policy aimed at solving a very short term fiscal problem. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 31 deals with state and local budgets. It requires that any bill in the legislature that increases certain spending by $25 million or more must say where the money is coming from. It also requires all state bills and amendments to be available to the public at least three days before approval. It allows the governor to reduce spending in a state fiscal emergency if the legislature fails to act, and it creates a two year state budget process. It also creates a process whereby local governments may develop procedures to coordinate public services and pool funds , including some state funds, to administer state mandated programs. This is a complicated measure, but it generally seems to be an improvement. Recommendation: YES

PROPOSITION 32 is the most important measure on the ballot. It forbids unions or corporations from using money deducted from an employee’s paycheck for political purposes. Unions and corporations may not make direct contributions to a candidate or candidate committee, and unions, corporations, and government contractors cannot make contributions to elected officials who play a role in awarding their contracts. This latter includes public sector labor unions with collective bargaining rights. If passed, this will change the face of California politics. Recommendation: YES****

PROPOSITION 33 allows auto insurance companies to set prices based on a driver’s history of insurance coverage, regardless of carrier. Under current law, a company may give discounts only for continuous coverage with itself, not other companies. This measure encourages price competition. Recommendation: YES

PROPOSITION 34 abolishes the death penalty. While I am aware of the extraordinary costs that follow a death sentence, I still believe there are crimes for which this is necessary and appropriate. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 35 increases prison terms and fines for those convicted of human trafficking for sex or labor. It expands the definition of human trafficking to include the creation and distribution of obscene material depicting minors, even if there is no contact with the minor. The first provision increases penalties for an almost nonexistent category of convictions; in March, 2012 there were only 18 people in state prison under existing law. The last provision seems to define an already illegal act as part of an unrelated statute. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 36 modifies the Three Strikes law. Under current law, a criminal convicted of two serious or violent felonies (murder, robbery, rape) must receive a 25 year to life sentence if convicted of any third felony. This proposition says the third strike in most cases must be a serious or violent felony. Any other felony would draw twice the usual term for a new offense but not life. If passed, the measure is retroactive for those whose third strike was not a serious or violent felony.

This measure reflects the reality of most prosecutions today. Many District Attorneys do not prosecute under Three Strikes unless the third strike is serious or violent. They can’t get juries to convict and sentence to life for a more minor offense. Recommendation: YES

PROPOSITION 37 requires that food being sold in California that contains genetically engineered components must indicate that on the label. Grocery stores must insure that foods are correctly labeled, the Department of Public Health must regulate labeling, and individuals may sue the manufacturer or, presumably, the grocery store for failures to properly label food. Exempted are alcoholic beverages, organic foods (the source of much of the money for this) , restaurant food, and prepared foods meant to be eaten immediately.

This is a horrible initiative. In 2011, 88% of the corn and 94% of the soybeans produced in the United States were genetically engineered to protect against pests, increase yield, etc. It is estimated that 40-70% of the foods in grocery stores in California contain some GE ingredients. The increased costs to manufacturers and grocers, plus the costs derived from potential litigation, are tremendous and will be reflected in higher food costs. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 38 raises state income taxes for all tax payers except for the bottom 1%. The increase ranges from .4% to 2.2% and lasts for twelve years. The money goes into a trust fund to pay for schools, child care, preschool, and state debt payments. The money to schools is on top of Proposition 98 mandates.

Passage of Proposition 38 may produce the worst of all possible worlds. It would significantly increase spending in K-12, but at the expense of raising the top income tax rate to 12.5%. None of the money would go to the general fund; thus all the draconian cuts the governor talks about would kick in and we would still have the highest state income tax in the nation. And, to be honest, I don’t believe the biggest problem for schools is money. It is control of schools and school boards by teachers’ union bosses who stand in the way of reforms needed to improve our poorest schools. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 39 limits the methodology multistate businesses may choose to figure their California taxes. It is intended to produce more revenue, half of which must go to alternative energy projects and “energy efficiency.” One may argue whether this will limit the amount of activity by these businesses in California. What seems clear is that this is another subsidy for an energy lobby that cannot compete in an open market. Recommendation: NO

PROPOSITION 40 is the Republican Party’s mistake. It is a referendum to overturn the Redistricting Commission’s Senate lines. After everyone calmed down and after a great deal of money was spent, it was clear the effort wasn’t going anywhere because there was no money for it. Furthermore, the districts really aren’t bad (see my commentary at the beginning of this Update). The actual vote is whether to keep the commission’s lines or abolish them and turn it over to a panel of judges. Recommendation: YES

Schlicht, Sachs Are Endorsed

On Sept. 22, incumbent Mission Viejo Councilwoman Cathy Schlicht and challenger Ed Sachs received the coveted endorsement of a statewide Republican organization. Members of Saddleback Republican Assembly held the convention to determine which candidates best represent principles of the California Republican Assembly.

SRA is a local unit of the California Republican Assembly. Following are the five cities within SRA’s jurisdiction, along with the number of seats up for reelection in November.

  • Aliso Viejo (three seats) – no endorsement.
  • Laguna Hills (two seats) – Bill Hunt and Raghu Mathur were endorsed.
  • Laguna Woods (three seats) – no endorsement.
  • Lake Forest (two seats) – Dwight Robinson was endorsed.
  • Mission Viejo (two seats) – Cathy Schlicht and Ed Sachs were endorsed.

To be endorsed, candidates must receive at least two-thirds of the total votes of members who attend the convention. Those who are endorsed by a local unit are thereby endorsed by California Republican Assembly, a chartered Republican organization.

SRA President Dale Tyler opened the convention and reported that all Republican candidates in SRA’s five-city region received endorsement questionnaires. Represented at the meeting were two officials from California Republican Assembly. Karl Heft, who recently retired as a state vice president, served as parliamentarian. State Vice President Craig Alexander served as sergeant at arms.

The meeting was held at the Norman P. Murray Community Center in Mission Viejo.

RINOs Strike Out

On Sept. 5, the OC Republican Party held its first round of interviews for Mission Viejo council endorsements. Four Republicans are among six council candidates for two open seats. Vying for the two endorsements were Cathy Schlicht, Ed Sachs, Frank Ury and Wendy Bucknum.

The Republican Party has a history of rejecting candidates who have campaigned for Democrats or taken campaign donations from labor unions. In 2010, the Party rejected Trish Kelley because she had campaigned in two city elections for Democrat Dave Leckness. In 2006, Lance MacLean wasn’t endorsed because he posted Democrat Dan Joseph’s campaign sign in his yard.

Frank Ury campaigned for Dave Leckness in February 2010 and November 2010. Wendy Bucknum campaigned for Leckness in February 2010 and November 2010, and she posted a union campaign sign in her yard.

Why did these two RINOs bother to apply for a Republican endorsement? The fix was in.

The first round of interviews was conducted by six GOP endorsing committee members: Mark Bucher, Mary Young, Matt Harper, Ray Grangoff, Chandra Chell and Thomas Gordon. Bucher is outspoken against labor unions, and he’s a proponent for Prop 32 on the November ballot to stop special interest and labor unions from influencing elections. Mission Viejo residents in the audience spoke in opposition to Ury and Bucknum, showing photos and campaign literature from 2010. Ury and Bucknum were in the photos, campaigning for a Democrat, and a union yard sign was pictured in front of Bucknum’s house.

Ury and Bucknum should have been rejected on the spot. However, Ury is a friend of Buchner and Granoff, and Wendy Bucknum works as a lobbyist – it’s her job to influence elected officials. The endorsing committee voted 4-2 (Chell and Gordon dissenting) to recommend that the OC GOP Central Committee endorse Ury and Bucknum. Because only two seats are up for election in November, the endorsing committee didn’t vote on Cathy Schlicht and Ed Sachs. A writer for a blog that Mark Bucher funds immediately ran with a story, giving a false impression Ury and Bucknum had been endorsed by the entire GOP Central Committee.

The type of hypocrisy shown by Bucher, Young, Harper and Granoff is what gave rise to the Tea Party in the first place. The 4-2 decision caused great offense, particularly among Tea Partiers on the OC GOP Central Committee.

To complete the process of getting endorsed, Ury and Bucknum needed approval of two-thirds of the Republican Central Committee’s 75 voting members.

On Sept. 17, the Central Committee began reviewing the recommendations. Early in the meeting, a similar situation unfolded with the Fullerton endorsements, where a good ol’ boy candidate failed with 31 votes in opposition. Mark Bucher saw the writing on the wall and left the meeting. Assemblywoman Diane Harkey, who had been lobbying for lobbyist Bucknum, also left abruptly.

Mission Viejo was up next. City Watchdog Larry Gilbert presented much of the same information he had given on Sept. 5 in opposition to Ury and Bucknum. When he displayed a poster with enlarged photos of Bucknum’s union sign and Ury and Bucknum campaigning for a Democrat, the sense of shock in the audience was audible. Gilbert added that Ury had contributed to a Political Action Committee to oppose the GOP’s endorsed candidates in 2010.

It was over quickly, with a unanimous vote of the entire Central Committee to reject Ury and Bucknum for the endorsement. Apparently, lobbyist Bucknum hadn’t wined and dined enough of the voting members. Ury hasn’t been much of a Republican since the 1990s, and most of those currently on the Central Committee don’t go back that far.

Only Cathy Schlicht and Ed Sachs are endorsed by any Republican group. On Sept. 22, they received the endorsement of Saddleback Republican Assembly, which carries the endorsement of the California Republican Assembly.

Non-government Events

Following is a sampling of events and activities that are not funded by taxpayers or promoted by the Nanny State. Please support private enterprise and non-profit groups.

Michaels, ongoing and new classes: sewing, painting and crafts, 25310 Marguerite Pkwy, Mission Viejo, (949) 770-5001, http://locations.michaels.com/CA/MISSION-VIEJO/8513/index.html

Jo-Ann Fabric and Craft Stores, ongoing and new classes, 26672 Portola Parkway, Foothill Ranch, (949) 588-7420, http://joann.shoplocal.com/joannsalesflyer/Default.aspx?action=entry&pretailerid=-99845&siteid=228&storeID=2412281

Big Bucks Bingo, Wednesdays, 6:15 p.m. early bird and 6:45 p.m. regular games, Mission Viejo Elks Lodge, Marguerite and La Paz, Mission Viejo, 949-830-3557. http://www.mvelks.com/

First Thursday Art Walk, Laguna Beach, Thurs., Oct. 4, 6:00 p.m., member galleries throughout Laguna Beach, including the Laguna Art Museum, 307 Cliff Drive at North Coast Highway, Laguna Beach, (949) 494-8971, http://firstthursdaysartwalk.com/

Huayucaltia concert at Soka University, Sat., Oct. 6, 8:00 p.m., fusion of the Andean, Afro-American, Jazz, Classical and Rock influences, 1 University Drive, Aliso Viejo, (949) 480-4278, http://soka.reachlocal.com/?scid=2695430&kw=19071058&pub_cr_id=16539318546

Mount of Olives Church, “Share – Food Collection,” Sun., Oct. 7, bring non-perishable food donations and place them in marked bins around campus, collecting for South County Outreach and Southwest Community Center, Mount of Olives Lutheran Church, 24772 Chrisanta Drive, Mission Viejo, (949) 837-7467, http://www.moochurch.org/

Lake Eeerie Halloween activities, Fri.-Sat., Oct. 19-20, 6:00 p.m. to 9:00 p.m, Lake Mission Viejo. Limited to lake association members and their guests. Call or visit the website for information, 949-770-1313, ext. 311, or http://www.lakemissionviejo.org

Old World Village Oktoberfest through Oct. 28, German bands, dancing, beer, German food, Old World Village, 7561 Center Ave., Huntington Beach, (714) 895-8020, http://www.oldworld.ws

Political and Government Events Calendar

South Orange County Community College District Board of Trustees, Mon., Sept. 24. Meeting times unless otherwise posted: open session convenes at 5:00 p.m., followed by adjournment to closed session, open session reconvenes at 6:00 p.m. or 6:30 p.m., adjournment by 9:00 p.m. Ronald Reagan Board of Trustees Room, Room 145, Health Sciences/District Offices Building, Saddleback College, 28000 Marguerite Parkway, Mission Viejo, (949) 582-4999, https://www.socccd.edu

Capistrano Unified School District Board of Trustees regular meeting on Mon., Sept. 24, 7:00 p.m., district office, 33122 Valle Road, San Juan Capistrano, agenda and supporting documentation are published on the website 72 hours prior to a meeting, (949) 234-9200, http://capousd.ca.schoolloop.com/

El Toro Water District meetings: Engineering, Finance, Insurance Committee on Tues., Sept. 25, 7:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m.; Board of Directors on Thurs., Sept. 27, 7:30 a.m. to 10:00 a.m. ETWD, 24251 Los Alisos Blvd., Lake Forest, (949) 837-0660, http://www.etwd.com/

Orange County Board of Supervisors will meet on Tues., Sept. 25, 9:30 a.m., Board Hearing Room, First Floor, 333 W. Santa Ana Blvd., Santa Ana, (714) 834-3100. http://egov.ocgov.com/ocgov/Government/Board%20of%20Supervisors/Meeting%20Schedule

Saddleback Valley Unified School District Board of Trustees will meet on Tues., Sept. 25, 6:30 p.m., “if necessary.” On Tues., Oct. 9, the district will hold a board workshop to discuss board policies (open to the public) at 4:30 p.m. and a regular board meeting at 6:30 p.m. District office, 25631 Peter Hartman Way, Mission Viejo, (949) 586-1234, http://www.svusd.k12.ca.us/

Santa Margarita Water District Board of Directors will meet on Wed., Sept. 26, 7:00 p.m., 26111 Antonio Parkway, Rancho Santa Margarita, (949) 459-6420, http://www.smwd.com

Concert at the Richard Nixon Library, Sun., Sept. 30, Third Wheel, Karen Kantenwein. Doors open at 1:15 p.m., and concerts begin at 2:00 p.m. unless otherwise noted. Concerts are free and open to the public. Schedule is subject to change. Richard Nixon Library, 18001 Yorba Linda Blvd., Yorba Linda, (714) 364-1161, http://events.nixonfoundation.org/concerts/

Wake Up America! Sun., Oct. 7, 2:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m., Tea Party and other conservative and reform-minded groups are presenting speakers and live music: Dennis Prager, Bill Whittle, Stephen K. Bannon, Mark Meckler, Alfonzo Rachel and rock band Madison Rising at the West L.A. Federal Building, 11000 Wilshire Blvd, West L.A., 90024, http://www.WakeUpAmerica2012.com

Mission Viejo Chapter of ACT for America, Mon., Oct. 8, guest speaker Jackie Rogers presents her experiences with sharia when living in Islamic countries. The group meets on second Mondays of the month at the Norman P. Murray Community Center, 24932 Veteran’s Way, Sycamore B Room, Mission Viejo. The meeting begins at 7:30 p.m.

Moulton Niguel Water District meetings: Investment on Wed., Oct. 10, 9:00 a.m.; Engineering and Operations on Mon., Oct. 15, 9:00 a.m., Finance and I.T. on Wed., Oct. 17, 9:00 a.m., Board of Directors on Thurs., Oct. 18, 5:30 p.m., 27500 La Paz Road, Laguna Niguel, (949) 831-2500, http://www.mnwd.com/board-of-directors/agenda.aspx

Meet Larry Elder at the Nixon Presidential Library, Thurs., Oct. 18, 3:00 p.m. to 6:00 p.m. Live KABC radio broadcast, free admission, Richard Nixon Presidential Library, 18001 Yorba Linda Blvd., Yorba Linda, (714) 364-1120, http://nixonfoundation.org

Saddleback Republican Assembly, Thurs., Oct. 18, 7:00 p.m. Guest speaker will Assemblyman Allan Mansoor. SRA meets on third Thursdays at the Norman P. Murray Community Center, 24932 Veterans Way, Jacaranda Room-B, Mission Viejo. For information call (949) 360-1717.

Last day to register to vote: all those wanting to vote in the November election must register by Mon., Oct. 22.

The Buzz

ACT for America Chapter Leader Bruce Mayall forwarded a message, “Thanks to a chapter member, here's a link to the full video Dreams From My Real Father. This is an excellent documentary that explains a lot about Barack Obama and makes a very strong case for his real father being Frank Marshall Davis, an avowed Communist who was on the FBI's watch list in the 1960s. I urge you to view this in its entirety and share it with others. I bought the DVD awhile back and found it to be a good primer for the current movie 2016: Obama's America.” Here’s the link to the video: http://www.ourcommunistcommanderinchief.com/

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The latest presidential poll shows Obama and Romney tied at 46 percent (Rasmussen Tracking poll of 1,500 likely voters, ending Sept. 22). http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

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The importance of Tea Partiers was demonstrated last week as a means to hold Republicans accountable. Tea Partiers and other conservative members of the OC Republican Central Committee reminded their fellow committee members to act like Republicans. Shortly after four people on the committee (Mark Bucher, Mary Young, Matt Harper and Ray Grangoff) attempted to bestow the Republican endorsement on Frank Ury and Wendy Bucknum, they got a wakeup call. During the Sept. 17 meeting, the conservatives were prepared to stop such wayward Republicans as Ury and Bucknum from being endorsed. Seeing the numbers lining up, the OC GOP Central Committee decided to stay out of Mission Viejo city politics.

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When voters chose OC Republican Central Committee members in the June Primary, did any of those elected think the vote meant “We the people want you to enrich and empower your friends”?

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Attendees at the OC GOP meeting on Sept. 17 said council candidate Wendy Bucknum was “fuming mad” when the Central Committee didn’t endorse her. They said Bucknum left in tears. This is a better measure of Bucknum’s professional demeanor than what residents see when she performs at council meetings by reading remarks from the public microphone.

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On another blog, the “dark side” supporters of the council majority are clawing the air about unwanted publicity regarding the electronic billboards in south Mission Viejo. Apparently, they cannot stand anyone shining the light on them, so here’s the website again: http://stopthetackylights.com/  Dark-siders’ complaints include a claim the website proprietor paid extra to hide her identity. Are they kidding? She has appeared at council meetings to alert residents of what’s coming. Ury and Bucknum have taken “campaign donations” from a developer proposing the Jumbotron-style billboards.